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ANZ job index shows the number of job adverts fell 0.9 per cent in December compared with the previous month while trends reveal that Australia is set for higher rate of unemployment in 2012....

16 January 2012

Highlights of the latest ANZ Job Advertisement series show that:

• The number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers fell 0.9% in December compared to the previous month.
• Internet job advertisements were 2.3% lower than a year ago. In contrast, newspaper job ads were 3.5% higher in December, the second consecutive monthly rise, but remained 9.3% lower than a year ago. The rise in newspaper job advertisements in December was driven largely by an exceptionally strong rise in job advertising in the Northern Territory as well as double-digit growth in Western Australia and another strong positive rise in Queensland. Excluding the Northern Territory, newspaper job advertisements rose 0.8% in December, to be 12.3% lower than a year ago.
• Job advertising continues to weaken in Australia’s two most populous States, New South Wales and Victoria. This most likely reflects ongoing consolidation in the manufacturing and retail sectors, as well as some pull-back in advertising for professional services.  Job advertising also remains weak in the other ‘non-mining’ States and Territories, contracting in Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.
• In trend terms, total job ads fell by 0.8% m/m in December recording their ninth consecutive monthly decline and are now 2.6% lower than a year earlier. This is the first annual decline since February 2010.

According to ANZ Head of Australian Economics Katie Dean, the fall of job advertisements in December reflected quite divergent patterns between internet and newspaper job advertising, with internet job advertising falling while newspaper job advertising rose sharply. “This, the second consecutive monthly rise in newspaper job advertising, needs to be watched closely, as newspaper job advertising often leads developments in overall job advertising (and therefore employment growth).”

“The current trend rate of employment growth is unlikely to be fast enough to absorb the forecast growth in the labour force in the short term. As a result, ANZ forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 5½% by mid-2012” says Ms Dean. “The unemployment rate is then expected to stay at this elevated level for most of 2012, before falling modestly in 2013.”

Excerpt from: The ANZ Job Advertisement series Media Release (www.anz.com), 16th January 2012